Forecasting Time Series with VARMA Recursions on Graphs

Graph-based techniques emerged as a choice to deal with the dimensionality issues in modeling multivariate time series. However, there is yet no complete understanding of how the underlying structure could be exploited to ease this task. This work provides contributions in this direction by considering the forecasting of a process evolving over a graph. We make use of the (approximate) time-vertex stationarity assumption, i.e., timevarying graph signals whose first and second order statistical moments are invariant over time and correlated to a known graph topology. The latter is combined with VAR and VARMA models to tackle the dimensionality issues present in predicting the temporal evolution of multivariate time series. We find out that by projecting the data to the graph spectral domain: (i) the multivariate model estimation reduces to that of fitting a number of uncorrelated univariate ARMA models and (ii) an optimal low-rank data representation can be exploited so as to further reduce the estimation costs. In the case that the multivariate process can be observed at a subset of nodes, the proposed models extend naturally to Kalman filtering on graphs allowing for optimal tracking. Numerical experiments with both synthetic and real data validate the proposed approach and highlight its benefits over state-of-the-art alternatives.Comment: submitted to the IEEE Transactions on Signal Processin

Filtering Random Graph Processes Over Random Time-Varying Graphs

Graph filters play a key role in processing the graph spectra of signals supported on the vertices of a graph. However, despite their widespread use, graph filters have been analyzed only in the deterministic setting, ignoring the impact of stochastic- ity in both the graph topology as well as the signal itself. To bridge this gap, we examine the statistical behavior of the two key filter types, finite impulse response (FIR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) graph filters, when operating on random time- varying graph signals (or random graph processes) over random time-varying graphs. Our analysis shows that (i) in expectation, the filters behave as the same deterministic filters operating on a deterministic graph, being the expected graph, having as input signal a deterministic signal, being the expected signal, and (ii) there are meaningful upper bounds for the variance of the filter output. We conclude the paper by proposing two novel ways of exploiting randomness to improve (joint graph-time) noise cancellation, as well as to reduce the computational complexity of graph filtering. As demonstrated by numerical results, these methods outperform the disjoint average and denoise algorithm, and yield a (up to) four times complexity redution, with very little difference from the optimal solution

Hodge-Compositional Edge Gaussian Processes

We propose principled Gaussian processes (GPs) for modeling functions defined over the edge set of a simplicial 2-complex, a structure similar to a graph in which edges may form triangular faces. This approach is intended for learning flow-type data on networks where edge flows can be characterized by the discrete divergence and curl. Drawing upon the Hodge decomposition, we first develop classes of divergence-free and curl-free edge GPs, suitable for various applications. We then combine them to create \emph{Hodge-compositional edge GPs} that are expressive enough to represent any edge function. These GPs facilitate direct and independent learning for the different Hodge components of edge functions, enabling us to capture their relevance during hyperparameter optimization. To highlight their practical potential, we apply them for flow data inference in currency exchange, ocean flows and water supply networks, comparing them to alternative models

Advances in Distributed Graph Filtering

Graph filters are one of the core tools in graph signal processing. A central aspect of them is their direct distributed implementation. However, the filtering performance is often traded with distributed communication and computational savings. To improve this tradeoff, this work generalizes state-of-the-art distributed graph filters to filters where every node weights the signal of its neighbors with different values while keeping the aggregation operation linear. This new implementation, labeled as edge-variant graph filter, yields a significant reduction in terms of communication rounds while preserving the approximation accuracy. In addition, we characterize the subset of shift-invariant graph filters that can be described with edge-variant recursions. By using a low-dimensional parametrization the proposed graph filters provide insights in approximating linear operators through the succession and composition of local operators, i.e., fixed support matrices, which span applications beyond the field of graph signal processing. A set of numerical results shows the benefits of the edge-variant filters over current methods and illustrates their potential to a wider range of applications than graph filtering